دانلود کتاب Apocalypse When? Calculating How Long the Human Race Will Survive

عنوان فارسی :

دانلود کتاب آخرالزمان کی؟ محاسبه چه مدت طول عمر بشر ادامه خواهد یافت

عنوان انگلیسی :

Apocalypse When? Calculating How Long the Human Race Will Survive

زبان : English

موضوع :

نویسندگان : Willard Wells

ناشر : Praxis

ISBN (شابک) : 0387098364

تعداد صفحات : 200\224

سال نشر : 2009     ویرایش :

حجم : 10 MB       فرمت : pdf

قیمت : 20000 تومان

فهرست :



Table of contents :
0387098364......Page 1
Title Page ......Page 3
Copyright Page ......Page 4
Table of contents ......Page 5
Preface ......Page 9
Acknowledgments ......Page 12
Figures ......Page 13
Pictures ......Page 14
Tables ......Page 16
Algebraic symbols ......Page 17
Abbreviations and acronym ......Page 19
About the author ......Page 20
Introduction ......Page 21
1 Formulation ......Page 30
1.1 MULTIPLE HAZARD RATES ......Page 33
1.2 PROBABLITY THEORY: A QUICK REVIEW ......Page 37
1.3 CHANGING HAZARD RATES ......Page 39
1.4 POSTERIOR PROBABILITY ......Page 40
1.5 PRINCIPLE OF INDIFFERENCE ......Page 44
1.6 CUMULATIVE RISK ......Page 53
2.1 BAYES' THEORY ......Page 58
2.2 STATISTICS OF BUSINESS FIRMS ......Page 60
2.3 STATISTICS OF STAGE PRODUCTIONS ......Page 64
2.4 LONGEVITY RANK ......Page 71
2.5 UNIVARIATE SUMMARY ......Page 72
3.1 A PARADOX ......Page 75
3.2 FORMULATION ......Page 76
3.3 AN EXAMPLE ......Page 79
3.4 LOGIC DIAGRAM ......Page 82
3.5 FURTURE RESEARCH ......Page 83
4 Human survivability ......Page 85
4.1 FORMULATION ......Page 87
4.2 HAZARDOUS DEVELOPMENT ......Page 91
4.3 PREDICTOR FORMULATION ......Page 99
4.4 SURVIVABILITY OF CIVILIZATION ......Page 102
4.5 SURVIVABILITY OF THE HUMAN RACE ......Page 104
4.6 SUMMARY AND CURRENT HAZARD RATES ......Page 107
4.7 BIASES ......Page 109
5 Apocalypse how? ......Page 111
5.1 SCENARIOS FOR EXTINCTION ......Page 112
5.2 WILD CARDS ......Page 123
5.3 OVERRATED NATURAL HAZARDS ......Page 130
5.4 TRIAGE ......Page 132
5.5 REFLECTIONS ON THIS STUDY ......Page 134
5.6 PROSPECTS FOR A SAFER WORLD ......Page 135
5.7 SYSTEMIC STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES ......Page 138
5.8 SECOND CHANCE? ......Page 141
5.9 SURVIVAL HABITAT ......Page 143
Appendix A Survival formula derived from hazard rates ......Page 147
A.1 VARIABLE HAZARD RATE ......Page 149
A.2 UNKNOWN VULNERABILITY ......Page 150
Appendix B Posterior survivability ......Page 152
Appendix C Infinite mean duration ......Page 154
Appendix D Survival predictor from Bayes' theory ......Page 156
D.1 ADVANCE KNOWLEDGE ......Page 159
D.2 NONINFORMATIVE PRIOR PROBABILITY ......Page 162
Appendix E Stage productions running on specified dates ......Page 163
Appendix F Extinction rates of prehistoric taxa ......Page 175
Appendix G Disaggregated mortality ......Page 178
Appendix H Stage productions with dual cum-risks ......Page 181
Appendix I Overall plan for survivability calculation ......Page 201
Appendix J Multiple hazards ......Page 203
Appendix K Cum-risks for man-made hazards ......Page 206
Appendix L Statistical weights for types of hazards ......Page 210
Appendix M Extinction thwartered by civilization's collapse ......Page 212
Appendix N Initial hazard rates ......Page 215
References ......Page 217
Index ......Page 221





کتاب های پزشکی

دانلود کتاب Encyclopedia Of Forensic And Legal Medicine

دانلود کتاب Neuroanatomy - Atlas Of Structures, Sections, Systems

دانلود کتاب Infantile Zerebralparese: Diagnostik, konservative und operative Therapie

دانلود کتاب A Clinical Approach to Medicine

دانلود کتاب Standard Electroencephalography in Clinical Psychiatry: A Practical Handbook (Wiley Practical Handbooks for Psychiatry Series)

کتاب های کامپیوتر

دانلود کتاب Cumulative Subject and Author Indexes for Vols.1-49

دانلود کتاب Java Enterprise Best Practices

دانلود کتاب Typed Lambda Calculi and Applications: 9th International Conference, TLCA 2009, Brasilia, Brazil, July 1-3, 2009. Proceedings

دانلود کتاب ASP.NET 3 5 Security Membership Role

دانلود کتاب Problem Solving With Prolog

کتاب های ریاضی

دانلود کتاب Theory and Numerics of Differential Equations: Durham 2000

دانلود کتاب 86th Fighter Group in WWII

دانلود کتاب Statistical Mechanics: Fundamentals and Modern Applications

دانلود کتاب Applied Regression Analysis, Third Edition (Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics)

دانلود کتاب Lie Groups and Lie Algebras II

کتاب های تکنولوژی

دانلود کتاب Amyloid Proteins: Methods and Protocols

دانلود کتاب Nanotechnology

دانلود کتاب Beds: outstanding projects from one of America's best craftsmen : with plans and complete instructions for building 9 classic beds

دانلود کتاب Protein Lipidation Protocols

دانلود کتاب Commercializing Micro-Nanotechnology Products

کتاب های مذهبی

دانلود کتاب Irenaeus of Lyons (The Early Church Fathers)

دانلود کتاب Paul and the Law

دانلود کتاب Islam and Buddhism

دانلود کتاب The Petrine Instauration: Religion, Esotericism and Science at the Court of Peter the Great, 1689-1725

دانلود کتاب Mysticism: Initiation and Dream

کتاب های فیزیولوژی

دانلود کتاب CURRENT Diagnosis & Treatment: Psychiatry, Second Edition (LANGE CURRENT Series)

دانلود کتاب The Power of Positive Teaching: 35 Successful Strategies for Active and Enthusiastic Classroom Participation

دانلود کتاب Debtor Diplomacy: Finance and American Foreign Relations in the Civil War Era 1837-1873

دانلود کتاب Why Do Fools Fall in Love: Experiencing the Magic, Mystery, and Meaning of Successful Relationships (Wiley Series in Psychology)

دانلود کتاب The Seed: Finding Purpose and Happiness in Life and Work

کتاب های تاریخی

دانلود کتاب Rome's Enemies (4): Spanish Armies 218-19 B.C.

دانلود کتاب The Official Monogram U.S. Navy & Marine Corps Aircraft Color Guide: 1940-1949

دانلود کتاب Panzer Tracts No.8: Sturmgeschuetz - S.Pak to Sturmmoerser

دانلود کتاب The Origins of War: From the Stone Age to Alexander the Great

دانلود کتاب Zerstorer Volume Two: Luftwaffe Fighter-Bombers and Destroyers 1941-1945 (Luftwaffe Colours)

کتاب های زیست شناسی

دانلود کتاب Receptor Binding Techniques

دانلود کتاب Bioinformatics. Genomics and post-genomics

دانلود کتاب Ecosystem Ecology

دانلود کتاب In Vitro Mutagenesis Protocols

دانلود کتاب Receptor Binding Techniques

کتاب های اقتصاد

دانلود کتاب Dave Landry On Swing Trading

دانلود کتاب Network Management: Accounting and Performance Strategies

دانلود کتاب Business Communication: Process and Product (with meguffey.com Printed Access Card) (Available Titles Aplia)

دانلود کتاب Service-Oriented Architecture: SOA Strategy, Methodology, and Technology

دانلود کتاب managing enterprise systems with the windows script host

کتاب های آموزشی

دانلود کتاب Green Gadgets For Dummies

دانلود کتاب A Short Course in International Payments: How to Use Letters of Credit, D/P and D/a Terms, Prepayment, Credit, and Cyberpayments in International Transactions ... Short Course in International Trade Series)

دانلود کتاب Oxford Dictionary of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology

دانلود کتاب Modes of Religiosity in Eastern Christianity: Religious Processes and Social Change in Ukraine (Halle Studies in the Anthropology of Eurasia)

دانلود کتاب How to Read the Bible: History, Prophecy, Literature--Why Modern Readers Need to Know the Difference, and What It Means for Faith Today

کتاب های حقوق

دانلود کتاب EUP The Work Of Giorgio Agamben Law Literature Life

دانلود کتاب A Father's Law (P.S.)

دانلود کتاب Terrorism and Homeland Security , Sixth Edition

دانلود کتاب Electoral Laws and Their Political Consequences (Agathon Series on Representation) (Agathon Series on Representation)

دانلود کتاب An Introduction to International Institutional Law

کتاب های علوم انسانی

دانلود کتاب Naming and Necessity

دانلود کتاب The Cambridge Companion to Modern Chinese Culture

دانلود کتاب From 'Civil Society' to 'Europe' (International Studies in Sociology and Social Anthropology)

دانلود کتاب Against Technology: From the Luddites to Neo-Luddism

دانلود کتاب Australian politics for dummies