Timescales and Environmental Change

BOOK COVER......Page 1
HALF-TITLE......Page 2
TITLE......Page 3
COPYRIGHT......Page 4
CONTENTS......Page 5
FIGURES......Page 7
TABLES......Page 9
CONTRIBUTORS......Page 10
PREFACE......Page 11
INTRODUCTION......Page 14
THE HUMAN IDEA OF TIME......Page 16
Time and intuitive human experience......Page 17
The cosmologies of mankind......Page 19
The discovery of the age of the earth......Page 21
Time and the biosphere......Page 24
Time and equilibria......Page 26
Chaos: or, non-equilibrial dynamics......Page 28
TIME AND THE SOCIAL WORLD: CAUSATION, PAST AND FUTURE......Page 31
Economic development......Page 32
The complexity of change......Page 33
THE CONTENTS OF THE BOOK......Page 35
REFERENCES......Page 36
INTRODUCTION......Page 38
MILANKOVICH TIME-SCALES OF CLIMATIC CHANGE......Page 41
SUB-MILANKOVICH TIME-SCALES OF CLIMATE CHANGE......Page 44
HUMAN IMPACT ON ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE: THE CASE OF DAMBO HYDROLOGY......Page 45
CONCLUSION......Page 48
REFERENCES......Page 49
INTRODUCTION......Page 52
HOLOCENE FLUCTUATIONS......Page 53
The Swiss glaciers......Page 57
The meteorological controls of glacier fluctuations......Page 61
The Medieval Warm Period and its decline......Page 67
The Little Ice Age centuries: sixteenth-and seventeenth-century Crete......Page 84
CONCLUSIONS......Page 92
NOTES......Page 94
REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING......Page 95
Time-scales of environmental change and the instrumental record......Page 100
The Central England temperature series......Page 101
CHARACTERISING RECORDS, AND EXAMINATION OF TRENDS......Page 102
Establishing a frame of reference: the longer term......Page 103
The shorter term: rates and magnitudes of change and statistical homogeneity......Page 104
Time and space scales and the representation of change......Page 108
Complex behaviour: modelling trend, cyclicity, and random variation......Page 113
CONCLUSIONS......Page 116
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS......Page 117
REFERENCES......Page 118
5 FUTURE GLOBAL WARMING......Page 120
INTRODUCTION......Page 121
TIME-SCALES FOR IMPACTS AND CONTROL MEASURES......Page 123
IMPACTS DEPENDING ON RATE OF CLIMATIC CHANGE......Page 125
DISCOUNTING THE FUTURE......Page 128
REFERENCES......Page 130
6 GREENHOUSE POLICY DEVELOPMENT AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTION TIMETABLE......Page 132
Greenhouse time-scale and policymaking implications......Page 133
Uncertainty about the greenhouse effect......Page 134
Factors in the Australian perspective on greenhouse policymaking......Page 135
AUSTRALIA’S ROLE IN INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICYMAKING......Page 136
Australian public opinion on the environment and greenhouse effect......Page 138
The impact of public opinion in greenhouse policymaking......Page 140
The National Greenhouse Response Strategy......Page 141
Factors shaping Australia’s domestic response......Page 145
CONCLUDING DISCUSSION......Page 147
NOTES......Page 148
REFERENCES......Page 149
INTRODUCTION......Page 152
THE LIMITATIONS OF THE ELECTORAL CYCLE......Page 153
TIME-SCALE REVOLUTION......Page 154
PROSPECTS FOR FURTHER CHANGE......Page 155
THE ROLE OF SCIENTIFIC UNCERTAINTY......Page 157
CONCLUSION......Page 158
REFERENCES......Page 159
INTRODUCTION......Page 160
THE STOCKING OF SOUTH AFRICA’S RANGELANDS......Page 161
ASSESSMENTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ON THE RANGELANDS......Page 163
DEGRADATION OR TRANSFORMATION......Page 169
CONCLUSIONS......Page 176
REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING......Page 177
INTRODUCTION......Page 180
ASSERTIONS OF RECENT FOREST LOSS IN WEST AFRICA......Page 182
RE-EXAMINING BASELINES FROM HISTORICAL SOURCES......Page 184
ONE-WAY DECLINE? RE-EXAMINING INDICATORS FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF INHABITANTS’ PRACTICES......Page 188
CHANGES IN THE FOREST-SAVANNA TRANSITION ZONE OVER THE CENTURY TIME-SCALE......Page 195
CLIMATIC CHANGE......Page 197
CONCLUSIONS......Page 199
REFERENCES......Page 202
INTRODUCTION......Page 208
TELOS, TELEOLOGICAL SEQUENCE AND TELOS COMPLETION TIME......Page 209
Telos completion time......Page 210
TELEOLOGY AND ENTREPRENEURIAL TIME HORIZONS......Page 211
The entrepreneurial time horizon......Page 212
Telos completion time and the entrepreneurial time horizon......Page 213
CAPITAL GOODS......Page 214
Biological evolution......Page 215
Evolution and the generation of novelty......Page 216
The predictability of processes......Page 217
The foreseeable future of predictability......Page 218
ECONOMIC EVOLUTION AND PREDICTABILITY: THE ECONOMY AND THE ENVIRONMENT: EX ANTE AND EX POST......Page 219
ECONOMIC ACTIONS AND THE NATURAL WORLD: THE TOTAL IMPACTS LIFETIME......Page 221
Relationships between the time concepts......Page 223
Economic action and the environment......Page 225
CONCLUSIONS: DECISION-MAKING CONCERNING THE ENVIRONMENT......Page 227
REFERENCES......Page 228
INTRODUCTION......Page 230
INDEPENDENT INDIA, NATIONALISM, AND THE IDEA OF DEVELOPMENT......Page 234
THE INDIAN ENVIRONMENT......Page 237
RATES OF SOCIAL CHANGE......Page 243
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATIONS......Page 245
THE MASS MEDIA AND PUBLIC OPINION IN INDIA......Page 248
CONCLUSIONS......Page 264
REFERENCES......Page 266
INTRODUCTORY COMMENTS......Page 268
‘NOW TIME’......Page 269
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND THE GENERATIONAL TIME-SCALE......Page 272
THE CENTURY TIME-SCALE......Page 274
TIME-SCALES AND MODELS IN THE PHYSICAL, NATURAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCES......Page 277
NOTES......Page 279
REFERENCES......Page 280
INDEX......Page 282